Americans tend to have a soft spot for our former presidents. Even the bad ones。
美国人往往对前任总统抱有一份特殊的情感。即使对差劲的总统也不例外。
By the time Richard Nixon died in 1994, his presidency was as likely to be lauded for theopening to China or the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency as it was to bedamned for Watergate. Gerald Ford’s pardon of Nixon, furiously condemned at the timeas a dirty political bargain, was later celebrated as an example of selfless statesmanship.Jimmy Carter’s reputational resurrection — not just for the way he conducted his postpresidency, but also for his acts in office — would have astounded the country that senthim packing in 1980 amid stagflation and a hostage crisis.
1994年理查德·尼克松去世时，人们关于他任内对中国开放或成立环境保护局的赞誉与对水门事件的指责不相上下。杰拉尔德·福特对尼克松的赦免当时被愤怒地谴责为肮脏的政治交易，后来却被誉为无私政治家的典范。吉米·卡特声誉的恢复——不仅是因为他卸任总统后的行事，还因为他在任期间的所作所为——会让那个在1980年滞胀和人质危机中将他送走的国家感到震惊。
Will Joe Biden enjoy a similar place in our national memory? It’s possible, and hisadministration had its achievements: NATO enlargement, the bipartisan infrastructurebill, defending Ukraine and Israel, strengthening alliances in the Pacific.
乔·拜登会在我们的国家记忆中占据类似的位置吗？有可能，他的政府也有其成就：扩大北约、两党基础设施法案、保卫乌克兰和以色列、加强太平洋地区的联盟。
The illusions: first, that the 2021 surge in migration was seasonal (“ happens every single solitary year,” as Biden said that March); second, that the Taliban would not swiftly seize Afghanistan (“the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely,” as he said that July); third, that inflation was transitory (“Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we’ve seen are expected to be temporary,” also that July).
这些错觉是：第一，2021年的移民潮是季节性的（“每年都会发生”，拜登在那年3月说）；第二，塔利班不会迅速占领阿富汗（“塔利班占领一切并拥有整个国家的可能性很小”，他在那年7月说）；第三，通货膨胀是暂时的（“我们的专家认为，数据也显示，我们看到的大多数价格上涨预计都是暂时的”，也是他在那年7月说的）。
The fourth, and the biggest: that he was the best Democratic candidate to defeat DonaldTrump: “I beat him once, and I will beat him again,” he often insisted, even after thedebate debacle.
第四个错觉，也是最大的一个错觉：他是打败特朗普的最佳民主党候选人。“我打败过他一次，我还会再打败他，”他经常这样坚持，即使在那场失败的辩论之后也是如此。
That last illusion was pure hubris. But there was an arrogance to the first three, since he was loudly alerted ( including by, well, me) on each point that he was making a fundamental mistake. The White House spent months in 2021 refusing to use the term “crisis” for the border — it was, instead, a “challenge.” Pentagon leaders warned the president that the Afghan government would soon collapse if the United States withdrew.
最后一个错觉纯属狂妄自大。但前三个错觉中也有傲慢的成分，因为在每件事上，都有人（好吧，这其中也包括了我）大声提醒他，他正在犯一个根本性的错误。2021年，白宫花了几个月的时间拒绝在边境问题上使用“危机”一词——仅仅说这是“挑战”。五角大楼领导人警告总统，如果美国撤军，阿富汗政府很快就会垮台。拜登耸了耸肩。拉里·萨默斯直言不讳地指出，拜登的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划存在通胀风险。拜登对此也置若罔闻。
Those misjudgments doomed the Biden presidency, which never had a positive approvalrating after the Afghan withdrawal. Maybe senior Democrats like Nancy Pelosi couldhave helped their party’s chances if they had had the talk with Joe and Jill Biden abouthis reelection prospects in the spring of 2022 instead of the summer of 2024. It was leftto Dean Phillips, the former Minnesota representative, to play the part of the boy whosays the emperor has no clothes. Someone ought to nominate him for a Profile in CourageAward.
这些错误判断注定了拜登总统任期的失败，在阿富汗撤军后，拜登的支持率从未让人满意。如果南希·佩洛西等资深民主党人能在2022年春天，而不是2024年夏天才与拜登和吉尔·拜登谈一谈他的连任前景，也许会对民主党的获胜机会有所帮助。最终是明尼苏达州前众议员迪恩·菲利普斯扮演那个指出皇帝其实没穿衣服的男孩的角色。应该有人提名他获得“勇气奖”。
Behind the misjudgments were the deceptions.
错误判断的背后是欺骗。
Biden ran in 2020 on the implicit but clear pledge that he intended to serve a single term(“If Biden is elected, he’s going to be 82 years old in four years,” one campaign advisertold Politico in 2019, “and he won’t be running for reelection.”) He promised to be abipartisan and moderate figure in the White House: “Unity” was the theme of his。
拜登在2020年的竞选中做出了让人心照不宣的承诺，他打算只担任一届总统。（“如果拜登当选，四年后他就82岁了，”一位竞选顾问在2019年告诉Politico，“他不会竞选连任。”）他承诺要成为白宫中得到两党支持的温和派人物：“团结”是他就职演说的主题。他和他的整个政府坚称，他的精神和身体状况都适合连任。他还承诺，如果他的儿子亨特被判有罪，他不会赦免他。
Of these deceptions, the first was the most forgivable and the most foolish: It’s preciselybecause power is so alluring that the voluntary abdication would have been so admirable.His grudging decision in July not to run came too late to qualify as statesmanship.
在这些欺骗中，第一个是最容易被原谅的，也是最愚蠢的：正因为权力如此诱人，自愿卸任才会如此令人钦佩。他在7月勉强决定不再参选，但为时已晚，称不上政治家风范。
The other deceptions: less forgivable. The centrist voters who put Biden in the WhiteHouse saw him as a safe and consoling pair of hands. Instead, he sought to govern as thesecond coming of Lyndon Johnson, with spending proposals amounting to $7.5 trillionnearly twice what we spent to win World War II, adjusted for inflation. And he took todenouncing “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to “the very foundations of our Republic.”
其他的欺骗就不那么容易被原谅了。让拜登入主白宫的中间派选民认为他是一双安全而令人欣慰的手。相反，他试图效仿林登·约翰逊的方式执政，提出了高达7.5万亿美元的支出建议——根据通货膨胀率调整后，几乎是我们赢得二战所花费的两倍。他还谴责“恢复美国伟大荣光派(MAGA)共和党人”威胁到了“我们共和国的根基”。
Worst of all were the last two deceptions. Last month, The Wall Street Journal publisheda comprehensive and devastating report on the president’s failing health. The paperreported that a former aide recalled a national security official saying, “He has good daysand bad days, and today was a bad day so we’re going to address this tomorrow” — in thespring of 2021. Perhaps the president didn’t notice his own decline, so the deceptionmight not have been his. But his entire senior staff must have noticed, and, as TheJournal reported, they took advantage of it to enhance their own power. It’s a nationalscandal that deserves a congressional inquiry.
最糟糕的是最后两次欺骗。上个月，《华尔街日报》就总统每况愈下的健康状况发表了一篇令人震惊的全面报道。报道称，一位前助手回忆一位国家安全官员曾说：“他有好的时候，也有坏的时候，今天不算好，所以我们明天再来处理这个问题。”——那是在2021年春天。也许总统没有注意到自己的衰退，所以不是他在欺骗。但他的所有高级幕僚肯定都注意到了，而且正如《华尔街日报》所报道的，他们利用这一点来提升自己的权力。这是一个全国性的丑闻，值得国会进行调查。
And Hunter? A father’s love is admirable. A president’s lie is not. In one of his last majorpolitical acts in office, Joe Biden forgot who he was. But it seems as if that alreadyhappened years ago. History won’t be kind.
那么关于亨特呢？父爱令人钦佩，总统的谎言则不然。在其任内最后的重大政治行动之一中，拜登忘了自己是谁。然而这样的事似乎在几年前就已经发生过。历史不会轻易原谅。
Comments